WTXS31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 72.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 72.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.5S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.7S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.9S 66.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.3S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.7S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.4S 57.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.3S 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 72.1E. 07JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 906 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062345Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOW SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED GMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTING ASCAT DATA. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28C. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KTS AT TAU 24 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR PEAKING AGAIN TO 40 KNOTS AT TAU 96 DUE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER SSTS (26C). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A 300 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.// NNNN