WTXS31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 74.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 74.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.7S 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.9S 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.0S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.2S 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.2S 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.7S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.5S 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 74.0E. 06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED AS RAIN BANDS UNRAVELED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION WEAKENED, DEFORMED AND SHEARED WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS LINED UP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AHEAD OF A FAINT BUT DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 060900Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 060449Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING MAX 35-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY TREND OF T2.5/3.0 (35/45KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SST AT 28C. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD UP TO TAU 48 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS BY TAU 12 - SUSTAINED UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AFTER IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 290NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.// NNNN