WTXS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 76.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 76.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 17.0S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 17.0S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 17.1S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.2S 65.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.3S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.3S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.1S 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 75.6E. 06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052314Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.0/45 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28C. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD UP THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, BUT WITH RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND COOLER SSTS. TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE RE- INTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 96, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.// NNNN