WTXS31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 76.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 76.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.8S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 17.2S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 17.2S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 17.0S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.8S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.1S 65.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.1S 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 76.4E. 05JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A TIMELY 042355Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED THE CURVED BANDING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 041915Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KTS, AND CLOSER TO A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY OF T3.9 (63 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC DANILO IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. AS THE STR BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM AT TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE NEAR TERM TC DANILO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12, POSSIBLY RAPIDLY, DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND MAINTAIN A 70KTS INTENSITY THEREAFTER THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 96, TC DANILO WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 41NM AT TAU 24, AND ONLY MAXES TO 133 NM BY TAU 120. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.// NNNN