WTXS31 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.1S 76.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.8S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 17.1S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 17.1S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.8S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.8S 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.0S 62.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.2E. 04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS MOST LIKELY COMPLETELY ABSORBED THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S OVER THE PREVIOUS 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WAS INVEST 93S TO THE NORTHWEST HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, AND CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041100Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS, WITH THE LLCC JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION, PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW / FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.5 (35-45 KTS), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.6 (56 KTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) WATERS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE NER WEAKENS AND RETREATS WESTWARD, AND A THE STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE, PUSHING THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST AND THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE GALWEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AFTER ABSORBTION OF 93S, BUT THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU 36, LIMITED BY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 48, SLOWLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW, LOW VWS AND CONTINUED WARM SSTS WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THOUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.// NNNN