WTXS31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 76.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 76.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.1S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.0S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.5S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.7S 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.4S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.1S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.9S 62.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 76.1E. 04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 08S IS UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, WHICH HAS WEAKENED AND IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TC 08S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO DISCRETE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION: THE EASTERN, LARGER AREA OF EXPANDING CONVECTION OBSCURING TC DANILO'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALLER, MORE LINEAR AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S. A 032351Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES OF TC 08S WITH THE LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5-T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) AND A 040115Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.9 (63 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). HOWEVER, THE ABSORPTION OF INVEST 93S IS LIKELY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL, THERE IS NOW MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12-24. NEAR TAU 24, INVEST 93S WILL GET FULLY ABSORBED INTO TC 08S AND A STR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY AFTER TAU 48 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS ANTICIPATED AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.// NNNN