WTXS31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 75.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 75.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.8S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.9S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.7S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.1S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.8S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.1S 67.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.7S 62.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 75.2E. 03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 08S IS UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, WHICH HAS WEAKENED AND IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF TC 08S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031409Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH (BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY) SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 031446Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 56 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C). HOWEVER, THE ABSORPTION OF INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY 140NM SOUTH, IS LIKELY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE ONGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE 03/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC, WHICH SHOWS LARGE SPREAD (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GALWEM AND NAVGEM TRACKERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION WITH A 170-250NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 96 TO 120. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12-24. NEAR TAU 24-36, INVEST 93S WILL GET FULLY ABSORBED INTO TC 08S AND A STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36-48 BUT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY STEADILY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS ANTICIPATED AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// NNNN