WTXS31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 74.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 74.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 13.6S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 14.8S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.8S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.4S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.6S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.6S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.0S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 74.6E. 03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FORMING A SYMMETRIC OVERCAST, OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031117Z SSMI COLOR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH WEAKER CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE, AND ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.5 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS AND LOW VWS BEING OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND GLOBAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS BEGUN. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, 93S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S THEN WRAP TOWARDS TC 08S, ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO ONE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. DURING THIS PROCESS TC 08S, AS THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WILL SLOWLY TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK WHILE SLOWING DOWN IN RESPONSE BOTH TO THE INTERACTION WITH 93S AND MOVEMENT INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL REGION BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 48 THE STR BUILDS IN SUFFICIENTLY TO NUDGE TC 08S ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK AND AS THE STR BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED, WILL SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS NOW DEPICTING A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREE ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND GALWEM WHICH ARE NOW SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST AND EVENTUAL LOOP BACK TO THE NORTH. OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, GFS HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EQUATORWARD TRACK AFTER THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THOUGH THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE IT THROUGH TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.// NNNN