WTXS31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 11.7S 73.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 73.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 12.8S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 14.0S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.0S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.0S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.6S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.7S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.1S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 73.9E. 03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A SHARP EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF INDICATIVE OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT. A BROAD EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN A 030455Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICRWAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS A 030457Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (52 KTS) AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, BUT RESTRICTED SOMEWHAT BY A MARGINAL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT WITH NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SOME EASTERLY PRESSURE FROM A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLCONE TO THE SOUTEAST NEAR INVEST 93S WHICH IS IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TC 08S. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, INVEST 93S, CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 260NM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TRACK WEST TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S. AFTER TAU 36 HOWEVER, INVEST 93S WILL BEGIN TO FUJIWHARA WITH TC 08S AND TRACK NORTHWARDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 08S, WHICH WHEN COMBINED BY A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WILL RESULT IN A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OF TC 08S. INVEST 93S IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED BY TC 08S BY TAU 48. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS MODIFIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN WESTWARD BY TAU 72. TC 08S IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT MOTION, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN PUSHED A BIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WHILE RETAINING THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO. THE GFS AND HWRF REMAIN THE EASTERN OUTLIERS WHILE NAVGEM IS THE WESTERNMOST OF THE TRACKERS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN THE POLEWARD OUTLIER THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, BUT IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL UNCERTAINY IN THE GUIDANCE IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12, BUT WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS THE CORE IS DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE ABSORBTION OF INVEST 98S. AFTER THE SYSTEM REFORMS AFTER ABSORBTION OF 93S AND BEGINS TO MOVE WEST, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, WITH DECREASED VWS AND MORE ROBUST OUTFLOW, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, WITH A RANGE BETWEEN 40 KNOTS TO 95 KNOTS BETWEEN MODEL OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WHICH IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, BUT ABOVE IT AFTER TAU 96. IN LIGHT OF THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// NNNN