WTPS31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZJAN2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 139.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 139.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 17.4S 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 17.7S 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.8S 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 140.2E. 03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL ROTATION HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A BROAD, STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALLING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM SHOWS THE DISORGANIZED CENTER, AND PROVIDES CLARIFICATION TO THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KTS). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOW A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 27 KNOTS AS THE CENTER PASSED, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 52 KNOTS, WHICH PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 09P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH VERY WARM (31 DEG C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION (THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS) TO A PEAK OF 45 TO 50 KTS IS LIKELY BEFORE THE EXPECTED LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TAU 12 NORTH OF KARUMBA, BUT IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE FORECAST POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS THE CIRCULATION BUTTS UP AGAINST THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 022000).// NNNN