WTXS31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 72.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 72.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 12.3S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 13.5S 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 14.8S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.5S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 15.9S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 15.9S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9S 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 72.9E. 03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 030003Z SSMIS 89 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AT 50 KTS AND IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND T3.5 (55 KTS) RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (49 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 93S (LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM SOUTHEAST OT TC 08S), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM INVEST 93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 08S AND IS SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 18 WITH LIMITED ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. BY TAU 24, TC 08S SHOULD BE WITHIN 60 NM OF INVEST 93S AT WHICH POINT THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT UNTIL INVEST 93S IS ABSORBED INTO TC 08S AROUND TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO FIRST WEAKEN AND THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD DUE TO WARM SST, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, AND LOW VWS. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY INDUCED INTO THE FORECAST BY THE ONGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. OVERALL, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK, TRACK SPEED, AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// NNNN