WTXS31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 72.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 72.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 11.8S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 12.9S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 14.1S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.1S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.0S 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.0S 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.9S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 72.7E. 02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 021701Z ASCAT-C WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 42 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 021745Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C). HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY 323NM SOUTHEAST, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM 93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 08S, WHICH IS SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE ONGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE 02/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC, WHICH SHOWS LARGE SPREAD (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, SIMILARLY, SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK, TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12-24. AFTER TAU 24, INVEST 93S WILL APPROACH WITHIN 100NM AND THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL FUJIWHARA AND INVEST 93S WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD. THE COMPLEX TRACK SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 12 THEN WEAKENING AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE. AFTER TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE WITH WARM SST (28- 29C), IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND LOW VWS--THIS SHOULD ALLOW TC 08S TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// NNNN