ABPW10 PGTW 022030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/022030Z-030600ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 59 
NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 021245Z METOP-B 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
THROUGHOUT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 97P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 97P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE STEADILY 
INTENSIFYING. NEAR TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL, 
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 022000) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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