WTXS31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 10.8S 72.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 72.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 11.4S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 12.5S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 13.7S 75.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.0S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 15.9S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.0S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.2S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 72.7E. 02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH A SHARP EASTERN (UPSHEAR) BOUNDARY AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED OUTER BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021133Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN LINE WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE FMEE ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND ADT/SATCON ESTIMATES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A GENERALLY MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, BEING OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION OF ITS OWN WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE IMPACT FROM INVEST 93S, CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SHARP UPSHEAR BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFIRMS HOWEVER THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS INDICATED BY THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR, TC 08S APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH TC 08S CONTINUING TO TRACK GNERALLY SOUTHEAST WHILE 93S TRACKS WEST THEN NORTH AS IT WRAPS INTO AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY APPROXIMATELY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC 08S IS TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72 THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM, AND TC 08S ACCELERATES WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION IS STILL VERY COMPLEX DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 08S AND INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY, BUT HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHEAST TRACK, THEN WESTWARD, THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN TERMS OF TRACK SPEED AND TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND HWRF ARE GROUPED CLOSELY TOGETHER ON THE EASTERN MOST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GROUPED ON THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSELY TRACKING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG, PEAKING AT 50 KTS BY TAU 12. AS INVEST 93S BEGINS TO FUJIWHARA AND MERGE WITH TC 08S, IT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY, TO 40 KTS. ONCE THE MERGER IS COMPLETE AND THE SYSTEM STARTS MOVING WEST IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW VWS AND MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, PEAKING AT 70 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A PEAK NEAR 100 KTS BY TAU 120, WHILE THE SHIPS-GFS INDICATES A 30 KT INTENSITY AT TAU 120. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.// NNNN