WTXS31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 10.5S 72.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 72.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 10.7S 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 11.6S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 12.8S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 14.3S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.5S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.0S 72.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.2S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 72.4E. 02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UNFORTUNATELY, THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE 020100Z TO ASSIST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION, HOWEVER A TIMELY 020402Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE CIRCULATION TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (50 KTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA, INDICATING 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALSYSIS SUPPORTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM INVEST 93S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430NM EAST-SOUTHEAST IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VWS OF TC 08S, SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS STARTING TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AS THE NER TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. AS THIS NER CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 08S WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY COMPLEX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE MERGER WITH INVEST 93S APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THE UNCERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS INTERACTION ON THE TRACK IS REFLECTED IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND GALWEM SHOWING A SOUTHEAST OR EAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAVGEM, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) INDICATE A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, THEN A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. THE LATTER GROUP OF MODELS INDICATE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHEY OF THE STRONG NER THROUGH TAU 36, THEN SLOWING AND TURNING SOUTH AS IT UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, ULTIMATELY ABSORBING IT BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS A MELD OF BOTH SCENARIOS, BUT FAVORS THE LATTER GROUPING OF MODELS AFTER TAU 36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILARLY COMPLEX, PRIMARILY IN LIGHT OF THE IMPACT OF THE INTERACTION AND ABSORBTION OF INVEST 93S. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO FIGHT OFF THE EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF INVEST 93S. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH 93S, THEN STEADY AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER IMPROVED CONDITIONS OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS. DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// NNNN