WTXS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 10.8S 72.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 72.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 10.9S 72.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 11.6S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 12.8S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 14.0S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.7S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.5S 72.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.9S 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 72.2E. 02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 020100Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF AN INTENSE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C). HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY 512NM EAST-SOUTHEAST, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM 93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 08S, WHICH IS SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FUJIWHARA WITH INVEST 93S LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 01/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC, WHICH SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND A LOW PROBABILITY SWATH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, SIMILARLY, SHOWS A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, UK-MET AND COAMPS-TC(GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) SHOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WHILE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UEMN INDICATE A SOUTHWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER MODELS FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS: INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24-36; AFTER TAU 36, INVEST 93S WILL APPROACH WITHIN 200NM AND THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL FUJIWHARA (PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE) WITH TC 08S THE DOMINANT SYSTEM; INVEST 93S WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY TAU 72; AND AFTER TAU 72, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD. THE COMPLEX TRACK SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 24 THEN WEAKENING AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE. AFTER TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH WARM SST (28-29C), IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND LOW VWS--THIS SHOULD ALLOW TC 08S TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// NNNN