ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.8S 83.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 81.2E, APPROXIMATELY 683 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 011126Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING 
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 011543Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS REVEALS SOME 25KT WINDS IN 
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (< 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT AND BE ABSORBED BY INVEST 96S. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.2S 72.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 235 
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 011127Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DEEP 
CONVECTIVE WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 011517Z ASCAT-A 
PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH 35-40KT 
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND 30-35KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. INVEST 
96S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 
(29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL TURN EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND 
BEGIN INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 010300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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