ABIO10 PGTW 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/REISSUED/010400Z-011800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.    
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) TTHE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.0S 85.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 792 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301308Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST FROM MAIN AREA OF 
CONVECTION. INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH 
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO 
INTERACT WITH INVEST 96S, POTENTIALLY ABSORBING INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.9S 72.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 288 
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 010159Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 010300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
       (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO HIGH//
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