WTXS21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 12.2S 72.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 72.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.9S 72.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 288 
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 010159Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020300Z.
//
NNNN