ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/311800Z-011800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302051ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.    
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.0S 85.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 792 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301308Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST FROM MAIN AREA OF 
CONVECTION. INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH 
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO 
INTERACT WITH INVEST 96S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 302100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.0S 72.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 267 
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 311651Z MHS 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 96S WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT 
WITH INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
       (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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