WTXS21 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 85.8E TO 13.1S 83.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 85.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5S 87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 673 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 301531Z MHS 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DETACHED FROM MAIN AREA OF 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 301532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
312100Z.//
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