ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.    
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30DEC20 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 300900) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.      
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.9S 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 533 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 301531Z MHS 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DETACHED FROM MAIN AREA OF 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 301532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 70.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 287 
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 301424Z MHS 89 GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 301626Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL SLOWLY 
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
       (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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