WTXS31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 37.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 37.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.7S 35.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 19.9S 31.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 37.0E. 29DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AROUND THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP (EIR). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WITH ALL STEERING WINDS IN PHASE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE INITIAL LOCATION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL BANDING EVIDENT IN A TIMELY 291740Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE FROM FMEE (T3.5/55KTS) AND NEAR A PGTW CI OF T4.0/65KTS AND A 291614Z CIMMS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANALYSIS OF TC 07S INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (31 CELSIUS) SST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND FAIR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC CHALANE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE STR TOWARDS BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE THROUGH TAU 12 AT WHICH POINT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF ZIMBABWE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH ONLY A 43NM SPREAD THAT INCREASES TO A MAX OF 56NM BY TAU 24. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 300900Z.// NNNN