ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/12240321ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.6S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 58.2E, APPROXIMATELY 292 
NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 241442Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 240557Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE 
REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-35KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. INVEST 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTXS21 PGTW 240330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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