WTXS21 PGTW 240330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 60.4E TO 14.5S 55.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 60.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.4S 60.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 351 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 232119Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 
PARTIAL 231755Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-35 KT 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. 
INVEST 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
250330Z.//
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