WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z --- NEAR 7.6N 109.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 109.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 7.5N 108.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 7.4N 106.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 109.4E.
22DEC20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
266 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD 
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED AND FLARING CONVECTION 
SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 90NM NORTHWEST OF A WEAK, RAGGED, ELONGATED, 
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC IN THE EIR 
LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLC IN THE 22110Z 
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS, CLASSIFIED AS 
TOO WEAK BY PGTW, IS BASED ON SURFACE WIND AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM HUYEN TRAN ISLAND, 55NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. 
A NARROW SWATH OF ELEVATED 30-35KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED 
WITH CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY A WIND SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND 
COMPRESSED ALONG THE VIETNAMESE COAST ARE UNDER THE SHEARED 
CONVECTION. TD KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING VWS AND 
DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY 
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET.//
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