ABPW10 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/192100Z-200600ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192021ZDEC2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.7N 120.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 111 
NM WEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 191345Z GMI 89GHZ PARTIAL SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 99W 
IS IN A MODESTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT MODERATE 
TO HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS 
WESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IN THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
192030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19DEC20 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 22.8S 178.0W, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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