WTPS31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 23.7S 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 24.5S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 178.2W. 19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE CENTER OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 191800Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 50 KNOT 191736Z CIMSS SATCON AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 05P HAS TRACKED STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG, AND INCREASING, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED LIMITED REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE AND CORE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF TC 05P ARE STEADILY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSETTING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF SUSTAINED, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEAR-TERM TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// NNNN