ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZDEC2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.6S 87.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 442 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191559Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH 
(15-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT DEPICTING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION AS INVEST 93S 
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.5S 128.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
214 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191043Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND SOME 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 94S IS 
CURRENTLY OVER LAND WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS 
INCLUDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING INVEST 94S SLIGHTLY 
INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE 
AUSTRALIAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
999 MB. BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS UNLIKELY TO TRACK 
OVER WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.9S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 
TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. INVEST 95S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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