ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.7N 123.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 120.8E, APPROXIMATELY 132 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTA PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH 
AND SOUTH BEING HEAVILY SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 190137Z MHS METOP-B 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME 
INDICATIONS OF LOWER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
UNFAVORABLE (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING WARM (29 
TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES OVER PALAWAN. ONCE CROSSING 
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, 99W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A 
NORTHERLY COLD SURGE, SPARKING HIGHER WINDS TO THE WEST; HOWEVER, 
99W WILL REMAIN VERY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 182030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19DEC20 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.0S 178.3W, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 190300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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