ABPW10 PGTW 180600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZDEC2020// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZDEC2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 127.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP INDICATES THAT THE LLC HAS BEGUN TRANSITING OVER MINDANAO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER MINDANAO WHICH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY AFTER UPON ENTERING THE WARM WATERS OF THE SULU SEA AND INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 18DEC20 0300Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 178.6W, APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. NNNN