WTPS31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 177.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 177.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.2S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.6S 179.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.0S 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.4S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.5S 178.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 25.3S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.2S 178.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 178.2E. 17DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A 12 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED EYE IN MSI. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME PRESSURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5-7.0 (127-140 KTS, KNES AND PGTW) AND AN ADT OF 6.4 (124.6 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON VANUA LEVU, FIJI PRIOR TO TAU 12. THROUGHOUT THIS TRANSIT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, DECREASING INTENSITY TO 115 KTS BY TAU 12. AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, CAUSING TC 05P TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BEFORE A STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TC 05P WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 80 KTS BY TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SST AND HIGH (>25 KTS) VWS WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE SYSTEM, AMPLIFYING THE DECAY OF TC 05P, DROPPING THE SYSTEM TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, THE MODEL TRACK ENVELOPE IS BOUND BY THE GFS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO THE EAST. OF NOTE, THE UKMET AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS, LENDING SUPPORT TO THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO INCREASING MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. // NNNN