WTPS32 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 168.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 168.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.5S 166.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 168.3W. 16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT TC ZAZU HAS MAINTAINED ITS CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW AND NFFN) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.6 (57 KTS). TC 06P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (50+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 12, TC ZAZU WILL COMPLETE ETT AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN