WTPS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 175.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 175.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.8S 176.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.6S 178.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.0S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.7S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 22.0S 179.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.0S 179.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 25.4S 177.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 175.4E. 16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS, PGTW, NFFN, AND KNES). TC YASA IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 05P TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 140 KTS THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, VWS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS COMMENCED WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FURTHER IN THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 24 TC YASA WILL WEAKEN TO 130 KTS, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF VANUA LEVU, FIJI. THEREAFTER, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 110 KTS BY TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, TC 05P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AS THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 90 KTS BY TAU 72. HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, COUPLED WITH COOL (< 26 CELSIUS) SST, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH A 90 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 THAT INCREASES TO 500 NM BY TAU 120. THE MODEL TRACK ENVELOPE IS BOUND BY THE GFS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO THE EAST WITH THE UKMET AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.// NNNN