WTPS32 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 21.0S 170.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 170.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.7S 167.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 27.6S 165.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 169.6W. 16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RESILIENT SYSTEM RETAINING ITS CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 152004Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE AND A PARTIAL 160028Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 152058Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWING 50-55 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 26-27C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND SST VALUES WILL COOL TO 23-25C WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 50 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN