WTPS31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 174.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 174.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.8S 175.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.7S 177.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.8S 178.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.3S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.1S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.2S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 24.9S 177.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 174.5E. 16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 95 KNOTS AT 15/00Z TO 140 KNOTS AT 16/00Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 30NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 152143Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/KNES/PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND SST (28-29C) VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 05P WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 140 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE ERC (SUGGESTED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT). AS TC 05P APPROACHES THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS OF FIJI, VITI LEVU AND VANUA LEVU, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR 120 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48 AND PASSAGE OVER THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS OF FIJI, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 06P. AFTER TAU 72, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SST VALUES COOL TO 26C AND VWS INCREASES TO 15-25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN