WTPS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 173.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 173.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.7S 174.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.3S 176.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.4S 178.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.7S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.8S 178.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.0S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 24.7S 177.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 173.8E. 15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 50 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 85 KNOTS AT 14/18Z TO 135 KNOTS AT 15/18Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 20NM OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW/KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) AND A 151800Z ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 6.6 (129.6 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND SST (28-29C) VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 05P WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12 TO A PEAK OF 140 KNOTS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (SUGGESTED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT) AND A POSSIBLE SPIKE TO 150 KNOTS (AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT DVORAK/ADT TRENDS). AS TC 05P APPROACHES THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS OF FIJI, VITI LEVU AND VANUA LEVU, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR 120 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48 AND PASSAGE OVER THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS OF FIJI, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 06P. AFTER TAU 72, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SST VALUES COOL TO 26C AND VWS INCREASES TO 15-20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN