WTPS32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 171.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 171.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 22.0S 169.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.2S 167.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 170.7W. 15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 151744Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATED WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 27C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND APPROACHES THE UPPER- LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 60-65 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND SST VALUES WILL COOL TO 24-25C WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN