WTPS32 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 172.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 172.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.1S 170.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.5S 167.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 27.5S 165.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 171.9W. 15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SURPRISINGLY BEEN SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FENDING OFF HIGH, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FLARING CONVECTION HAS SHOWN INCREASING ORGANIZATION, WITH NASCENT SPIRAL BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL-DEFINED LLCC EVIDENT IN A 150948Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (46 KNOTS) AND A CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 48 KTS, CONFIRMED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS, ALONG WITH BOTH AN ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-C PASS, WHICH SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 50-55 KNOT RANGE. TC ZAZU IS TRACKING EAST- SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH (>30 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM (26-27 DEG C) SSTS BEING SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY ROBUST, DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSITS UNDER THE HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, OFFSETTING THE HIGH VWS. TC 06P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 24, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS, BECOMING FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36, AS A NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ONLY 70NM SPREAD AT TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN