WTPS31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 173.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 173.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.7S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.7S 174.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.3S 176.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.3S 177.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.9S 179.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 21.8S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 23.8S 179.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 173.2E. 15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 12NM EYE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AT VARIOUS POINTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 12NM EYE IN THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 150452Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A ROUGH AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS, PGTW) AND T6.0 (115 KTS, KNES), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T5.6 (104 KTS), AND A CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 99 KTS. TC YASA IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 DEG C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE NER REORIENTS AND MERGES WITH AN STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, FORMING A LARGE, NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE COMPLEX. AFTER PASSING BETWEEN THE MAIN FIJIAN ISLANDS OF VITI LEVU AND VANUA LEVU BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ONCE MORE ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL REGION BETWEEN AN NER TO THE NORTH, STR TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE EAST AND WEST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM (29 DEG C) SSTS, LOW VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO A LIKELY ERC. THEREAFTER, ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE EYEWALL REFORMS, AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE BASE OF A PASSING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER PASSING BETWEEN THE FIJIAN ISLANDS, DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH SIGNIFICANT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD STEADILY INCREASING TO 290NM AT TAU 27. THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS LIE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON VITI LEVU NEAR TAU 60. MEANWHILE, THE UKMET ENSEMBLE LIES ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF VANUA LEVU. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST, BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS TURN, LEADING TO LARGE ALONG AND CROSS- TRACK ERRORS IN THE LATER TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION, AND FAVORS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN