WTPS32 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 174.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 174.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.5S 172.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.9S 170.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.5S 168.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 26.9S 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 173.7W. 15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 142025Z ASCAT-B IMAGE THAT REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES), AND A 141911Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. TC ZAZU IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 24 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE HIGH VWS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST (< 26 CELSIUS) WILL OVERPOWER THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC ZAZU APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND SUBSEQUENTLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN