WTPS31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 172.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 172.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.1S 172.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.8S 172.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.9S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.5S 175.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.6S 178.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.5S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.2S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 172.1E. 14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT IS WORKING TO FORM AN EYE, SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EARLY FORMATION STAGE OF AN EYE-FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS, PGTW) AND T5.5 (102 KTS, KNES), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.3 (72 KTS) AND A 141600Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 71 KTS. TC YASA IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH, THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WELL ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST RESULTS IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THROUGH TAU 12, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, TC 05P WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK AS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS INITIAL TRACK, TC YASA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KTS AND BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. TC 05P WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF FIJI JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72. INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS THEREAFTER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A 200 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, JUST AFTER LANDFALL, WHICH INCREASES TO 370 NM BY TAU 120. THE TRACK ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE WEST, AND GALWEM ALONG WITH THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE EAST. THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS CLUSTER CLOSER TOGETHER NEAR THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN