WTPS31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 171.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 171.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.2S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.9S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.8S 172.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.2S 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.0S 177.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.8S 179.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.9S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 171.6E. 14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW) AND T4.5 (77 KTS, KNES), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS) AND A 140721Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KTS. TC YASA IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WELL ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THROUGH TAU 12, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, TC 05P WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK AS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS INITIAL TRACK, TC YASA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 95 KTS AND BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P WILL THEN REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KTS BY TAU 72 PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF FIJI. INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS THEREAFTER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A 250 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THAT INCREASES TO 450 NM BY TAU 120. THE TRACK ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE WEST, AND UKMET DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE EAST. THE GALWEM, NAVGEM AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS CLUSTER CLOSER TOGETHER NEAR THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN