WTPS32 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 174.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.4S 173.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.5S 171.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 22.6S 169.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.8S 167.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 174.0W. 14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND LOW-LEVEL BANDING IN THE 141758Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS) AND A 141315Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. TC ZAZU IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (25- 30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN THE NEAR TERM, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL REPOSITION FARTHER TO THE EAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 24 WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 24 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST (< 26 CELSIUS) WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC ZAZU APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SUBSEQUENTLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN