WTPS32 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 004// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140752ZDEC2020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 174.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 174.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.9S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.5S 173.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.5S 171.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 22.2S 169.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.3S 166.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 174.3W. 14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY BUILDING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES EVIDENT IN A TIMELY 140644Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW AND ABRF) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS) AND A 140114Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. TC ZAZU IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL REPOSITION FARTHER TO THE EAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COMPLEX TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 24 WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 36 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST (< 26 CELSIUS) WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC ZAZU APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SUBSEQUENTLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN