WTPS32 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 174.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 174.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.3S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.9S 173.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.6S 172.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.1S 170.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 25.6S 167.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 174.1W. 14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON VARIOUS AGENCY FIXES AND 132245Z GMI IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 06P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND RECEDE EASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD, AND FORWARD TRACK SPEED WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW. AFTER TAU 24, A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH TC 06P FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND DEVELOPING RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS TC 06P BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND, ALTHOUGH BAROCLINIC INTERACTIVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT STORM INTENSITY AROUND THAT POINT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN