WTPS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 171.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 171.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.6S 171.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.2S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.8S 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.4S 174.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.7S 176.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.9S 178.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 171.8E. 14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON VARIOUS AGENCY FIXES AND 132111Z METOP-A AND 132226Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA AND A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIXES. TC 05P HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS, THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT AS THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS AND NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DURING THIS STEERING TRANSITION PERIOD, TC 05P WILL LOOP EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DEPICTIONS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PENDING LOOP AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, WELL TO THE WEST OF FIJI, AND THE UKMET MODEL AND MOGREPS-G ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FIJIAN ISLANDS. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LIE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND HAS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY AS THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN EVOLVES. TC 07P WILL INTENSITY IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29C). THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO END AND REVERSE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN