WTPS31 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 172.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 172.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.8S 171.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.5S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.1S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.8S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.2S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.1S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.1S 178.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.1E. 13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES AND 131629Z SSMIS IMAGERY SHOWING A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T4.0 (65 KTS) AND EARLIER AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. TC 05P IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS, THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS STEERING TRANSITION PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOP EASTWARD, AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST DOMINATES STEERING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DEPICTIONS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PENDING LOOP AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LIE WELL TO THE WEST OF FIJIAN ISLANDS, WHILE THE UKMET SOLUTION LIES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND GROUP. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LIE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE ANTICIPATED AS THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN EVOLVES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29C). SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY TAU 120 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN