WTPS32 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 173.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 173.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.3S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.7S 174.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.4S 173.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.6S 171.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 24.8S 167.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 173.9W. 13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES AND 131810Z SSMIS IMAGERY, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 06P HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS STEERING RIDGE IS REORIENTING AND RECEDING EASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES. WITH THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE, STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN, AND THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED FOR TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH TC 06P FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BY TAU 72, AS IT MERGES WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND, ALTHOUGH BAROCLINIC INTERACTIVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT STORM INTENSITY AROUND THAT POINT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN