WTPS32 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130621ZDEC2020// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZDEC2020// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 173.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 173.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 18.0S 174.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.5S 174.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.0S 174.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.9S 172.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.4S 168.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 27.9S 164.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 173.7W. 13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW AND KNES) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 35 KTS WINDS IN DATA FROM A 130936Z ASCAT-B PASS. TC 06P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL EASTWARD RETREAT DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE RE-POSITIONS AND BUILDS TO THE EAST THE STORM MOTION WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AND LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS BY THAT TIME. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 35 KTS AND COMPLETE ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. THIS DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 130630).// NNNN